Accounting a probability factorduring determining the length of schedule works

Authors

  • T. V. Tkach State Higher Education Establishment “Pridneprovsk State Academy of Civil Engineering and Architecture”, 24-A, Chernishevskogo str., Dnipropetrovsk, Ukraine
  • V. R. Mlodetskiy State Higher Education Establishment “Pridneprovsk State Academy of Civil Engineering and Architecture”, 24-A, Chernishevskogo str., Dnipropetrovsk, Ukraine
  • А. А. Martysh State Higher Education Establishment “Pridneprovsk State Academy of Civil Engineering and Architecture”, 24-A, Chernishevskogo str., Dnipropetrovsk, Ukraine

Keywords:

Scheduling, organizational and technological reliability, intensity of work

Abstract

Summary.  Purpose.  To  analyse  the  existent  methods  of  description  and  design  of  building  and  installation  works  implementation  process,  and  also  to  educe  the  planning  stages  on  which  it  is  possible  to  increase  calculations  exactness.   Article  discusses  the  factors  that  affect  the  estimated  time  of  performing  any  construction  and assembly  operations  in  the  schedule.  Methodology. The method is based on the approach that the completion time of a scope of work is derived from the performance of a  performer and the work intensity. According this method, any planned work in the schedule is shown as "fan" function, which allows to see an increase of uncertainty over time. The thesis describes a calculation method of the work organization taking into a ccount  such uncertainty. We describe the most typical cases of interlinkages between works in the calendar plan, performed by the proposed  method. Results. The proposed approach allows to neutralize the contradiction between the probabilistic nature of real processes and  deterministic methods of their description. The presence of the of the determined value  of a parameter only is not enough, because it  is  uncertain  its  position  in  the  possible  range  of  values  from  the  minimum  to  the  maximum.   Scientific  novelty  and  practical  significance.  The  expounded  methodology  of  research  is  devoted  to  scheduling  and  solving  scientific  problem  of  improving  the  reliability  of  the  planning  and  schedule  implementation.   Manufacturing  processes  and  conditions  defining  the  performance indicators are in the future, and prediction (forecasting) of their values can be done only wit h a certain level of probability. Therefore,  schedules based on probabilistic nature of their performance, allows you to get even more pessimistic values, but at the same   time more reliable probability of achievement.

Author Biographies

T. V. Tkach, State Higher Education Establishment “Pridneprovsk State Academy of Civil Engineering and Architecture”, 24-A, Chernishevskogo str., Dnipropetrovsk

Assistant Prof.

V. R. Mlodetskiy, State Higher Education Establishment “Pridneprovsk State Academy of Civil Engineering and Architecture”, 24-A, Chernishevskogo str., Dnipropetrovsk

D.Sc. in Tech., Prof.

А. А. Martysh, State Higher Education Establishment “Pridneprovsk State Academy of Civil Engineering and Architecture”, 24-A, Chernishevskogo str., Dnipropetrovsk

Cand.sc. (tech.), Associate Prof.

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Published

2016-09-27

Issue

Section

Computer systems and information technologies in education, science and management